Football Illustrated Top 30 HSFB Rankings

[Columbiafan]

1 hour ago, GardenStateBaller said:

CAI plays a national schedule. Jesuit is just a local power in FL. This is a national fan site. Therefore, CAI trumps TJ. 

CAI plays a tough schedule but playing a tough schedule doesn't always mean a team is great 

 

Life Christian Academy probably wouldn't beat any top 25 team in Florida so would they get ranked ahead of teams of that quality simply because they play a tough schedule?

 

The only important thing to consider is would you actually pick CAI head to head in a game with Tampa Jesuit? I know I wouldn't but hey maybe you have a different opinion on that which is perfectly fine but just playing a tougher schedule doesn't always mean the team is actually better on the field and if ranking services are ranking based on schedules that will be a massive flaw that will hurt them unless they can truly justify why SOS is more valuable than on the field ability especially when it's not like Jesuit is just playing the worst teams they can find 

[GardenStateBaller]

28 minutes ago, Bodysurf said:

What is their national schedule? Is maxpreps schedule correct? According to that they have 6 games total, with 2 games against the same opponent. One game is against an OOS team I never heard of. I wouldn't consider this national?

They're "National" in a few ways: Of late they've scheduled the reputable and venerable likes of Carver AL, Fort Dorchester SC, Brentwood Academy TN, McCallie TN, Elder OH and Cornerstone Christian TX. And let's not forget that they attract ballers from all over the globe. 

[GardenStateBaller]

4 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

CAI plays a tough schedule but playing a tough schedule doesn't always mean a team is great 

 

Life Christian Academy probably wouldn't beat any top 25 team in Florida so would they get ranked ahead of teams of that quality simply because they play a tough schedule?

 

The only important thing to consider is would you actually pick CAI head to head in a game with Tampa Jesuit? I know I wouldn't but hey maybe you have a different opinion on that which is perfectly fine but just playing a tougher schedule doesn't always mean the team is actually better on the field and if ranking services are ranking based on schedules that will be a massive flaw that will hurt them unless they can truly justify why SOS is more valuable than on the field ability especially when it's not like Jesuit is just playing the worst teams they can find 

You know how vital SOS is to me. This will be reflected in our rankings as the 2022 season progresses. 

[Columbiafan]

3 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

You know how vital SOS is to me. This will be reflected in our rankings as the 2022 season progresses. 

Yeah it's a very important factor in mine as well

 

But I would never rank a team solely on their schedule, I have a lot of factors that I look at and playing a tough schedule is a great way to distinguish two teams who are playing great and keep winning their games but I've always felt that the overall on the field resume will be important 

 

Take this hypothetical example 

 

Team A plays a more state schedule and plays about 4-5 teams ranked top 50 in the state of Florida, they are 10-0 heading into postseason

 

Team B plays a more national schedule where they play a lot of great teams but the highest ranked win Team B has is on par with the 4th highest ranked win of team A in the national rankings, that team goes 5-5 

 

 

There is no logical argument in that scenario to rank Team B over Team A right?

[Bodysurf]

3 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

They're "National" in a few ways: Of late they've scheduled the reputable and venerable likes of Brentwood Academy TN, McCallie TN, Elder OH and Cornerstone Christian TX. And let's not forget that they attract ballers from all over the globe. 

Do they have 5th year players?

To be considered 'national' the casual fan that does not go to online boards like this should have heard of them. There are many college teams that are a national 'brand' but only a very few high school teams are a national brand. 

[GardenStateBaller]

Just now, Columbiafan said:

Yeah it's a very important factor in mine as well

 

But I would never rank a team solely on their schedule, I have a lot of factors that I look at and playing a tough schedule is a great way to distinguish two teams who are playing great and keep winning their games but I've always felt that the overall on the field resume will be important 

 

Take this hypothetical example 

 

Team A plays a more state schedule and plays about 4-5 teams ranked top 50 in the state of Florida, they are 10-0 heading into postseason

 

Team B plays a more national schedule where they play a lot of great teams but the highest ranked win Team B has is on par with the 4th highest ranked win of team A in the national rankings, that team goes 5-5 

 

 

There is no logical argument in that scenario to rank Team B over Team A right?

Of course!! Can't schedule tough, lose every game, then expect to be ranked. However, I have no problem with a one-loss team with a high SOS being ranked ahead of an undefeated team with a patsy schedule. 

[Columbiafan]

A team who has a similar record and plays a more brutal schedule than the other will absolutely be ranked higher for that schedule

 

I've also left plenty of undefeated teams unranked because of their schedules being an embarrassment but Jesuit schedule isn't anywhere near the level of poor schedules for me to avoid ranking them in my Florida rankings especially coming off an undefeated season and a state title while beating STA and MNW in that path

 

I know national rankings work differently but I also know that Florida overall is a state that carries a lot of weight and a team if they are considered top 5 in Florida will likely be guaranteed to start high in a national poll regardless because of the weight of being in Florida to help carry them 

[GardenStateBaller]

Just now, Bodysurf said:

Do they have 5th year players?

 

Not that I'm aware. And this site is not for casual fans. 

[Columbiafan]

Just now, GardenStateBaller said:

Of course!! Can't schedule tough, lose every game, then expect to be ranked. However, I have no problem with a one-loss team with a high SOS being ranked ahead of an undefeated team with a patsy schedule. 

I see we on the same page with that

 

But there is a tendency that something like this could happen (and those scenarios do happen every year) and if someone is too focused on SOS then they could make that mistake 

 

And I've ranked 4 or 5 loss teams over undefeated teams before but those undefeated teams don't even have a top 100 in state win so it's not the same example but you still get an idea that while SOS is important it should never be the sole focus of a ranking system but it is still a useful tool especially mid season for separating teams of similar records and resumes 

[Bodysurf]

1 minute ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Not that I'm aware. And this site is not for casual fans. 

Exactly my point. IMO to be 'national' you need to be known by the casual fans, not just the die-hards like us.

[GardenStateBaller]

17 minutes ago, Bodysurf said:

Exactly my point. IMO to be 'national' you need to be known by the casual fans, not just the die-hards like us.

CAI started 11-man football in 2016. They have a high school enrollment of about 90 co-ed students. Over the last three years, they've produced 36 D1 ballers, including players that have committed to Clemson, Bama, Minnesota, FSU, RU, WVU, Miami FL, Stanford, etc. The aforementioned accomplishments makes them as relevant and national as any HSFB team can be. The casual fans need to step-up their efforts 😉 

[Sammy Swordsman]

2 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:

What will be used to determine the quality of the schedule?

The Mendoza Tier will have the same metrics as the regular Tiers.   Pulling from multiple sources such as ranking publications, both regional and national, video evaluation, crowd sourcing, etc.

A placement in the Mendoza Tier will be cited as justification for a team being dropped to a lower Tier.   For Example, if there are 2 teams on the bubble for Tier 3 but one of the teams is in the Mendoza Tier, the Mendoza Tier team most likely will be dropped to Tier 4.

[GardenStateBaller]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

The Mendoza Tier will have the same metrics as the regular Tiers.   Pulling from multiple sources such as ranking publications, both regional and national, video evaluation, crowd sourcing, etc.

A placement in the Mendoza Tier will be cited as justification for a team being dropped to a lower Tier.   For Example, if there are 2 teams on the bubble for Tier 3 but one of the teams is in the Mendoza Tier, the Mendoza Tier team most likely will be dropped to Tier 4.

Love this. I'll start your T10 now:

Westlake, Guyer, South Oak Cliff, Skyridge UT, SLC, Westfield IN, Cath Mem MA, Denton Ryan, Jesuit FL and Oakland TN. 

[Columbiafan]

30 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

The Mendoza Tier will have the same metrics as the regular Tiers.   Pulling from multiple sources such as ranking publications, both regional and national, video evaluation, crowd sourcing, etc.

A placement in the Mendoza Tier will be cited as justification for a team being dropped to a lower Tier.   For Example, if there are 2 teams on the bubble for Tier 3 but one of the teams is in the Mendoza Tier, the Mendoza Tier team most likely will be dropped to Tier 4.

Wouldn't it be just as easy to just give a team a Mendoza handicap to justify a drop in tiers due to schedule?

[Sammy Swordsman]

3 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

Wouldn't it be just as easy to just give a team a Mendoza handicap to justify a drop in tiers due to schedule?

Thats a good idea.   I could see a use for this is regular rankings as well.

Say Max preps ranks a team at #4 but they have a -6 Mendoza handicap so they drop to #10.   Unless the Mendoza handicap has a multiplier (2x, 3x etc).

If the Mendoza handicap is assigned a 3x multiplier then the #4 team drops (-6 x 3 = -18 spots).  So the #4 team would be  ranked #22 after the Mendoza handicap is considered.

I like this idea!

[GardenStateBaller]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Thats a good idea.   I could see a use for this is regular rankings as well.

Say Max preps ranks a team at #4 but they have a -6 Mendoza handicap so they drop to #10.   Unless the Mendoza handicap has a multiplier (2x, 3x etc).

If the Mendoza handicap is assigned a 3x multiplier then the #4 team drops (-6 x 3 = -18 spots).  So the #4 team would be  ranked #22 after the Mendoza handicap is considered.

I like this idea!

LFG!! The most innovative, cutting-edge ideas in HSFB start here!! 

[Columbiafan]

18 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Thats a good idea.   I could see a use for this is regular rankings as well.

Say Max preps ranks a team at #4 but they have a -6 Mendoza handicap so they drop to #10.   Unless the Mendoza handicap has a multiplier (2x, 3x etc).

If the Mendoza handicap is assigned a 3x multiplier then the #4 team drops (-6 x 3 = -18 spots).  So the #4 team would be  ranked #22 after the Mendoza handicap is considered.

I like this idea!

Maybe create a multipler system by tiering schedules because not all those teams will have the same kind of "crappy" schedules

 

Some may have schedules weak on a national level (Jesuit/Lakeland) but good on a state level while others may have schedules that are bad even on a state level 

 

Though obviously that doesn't mean rank every schedule in the country (as the tiers system is applied as well) but if you have a system for SOS on hand then you can create a tier system for the multipler which means the weaker the schedule the larger the handicap to the team 

[Sammy Swordsman]

1 hour ago, GardenStateBaller said:

LFG!! The most innovative, cutting-edge ideas in HSFB start here!! 

For Example, lets look at a sample schedule of Saguaro AZ.   For arguement's sake we will use the end of year 2021 Calpreps rankings to assign a Mendoza handicap for week 0.   (we could also use the Comp poll) Handicaps will fluxuate as the season goes on and opponnents turn our to be better or worse based on actual current season records.

Sample Mendoza point calculation.  (Not final)

* + points for every higher spot an opponent is ranked.   7 spots higher = 7 + points

* - points for every (25 spots an opponent is ranked.   -100 spots = -4 points

* bonus points for scheduling Top 10 = 10; Top 25 = 7; Top 50 = 3; Top 100 = 1

 

Saguaro rank - #15

Bergen  - #12 = +3 + 7 bonus = +10 Mendoza handicap

Queen Creek - #163 = -6 mendoza points

O'connor

Chandler

Liberty

 

[Columbiafan]

The reason I suggest it that way is currently you already have a system in place for the tiers as it is and adding a standalone tier for bad schedules could make it overly complicated and even teams with a bad schedule can still beat teams in the normal tiers 

 

By applying the handicap instead you will still be able to rank the teams but their schedule causes them to have a reduced value which is similar to the MaxPreps Team strength rating which takes into account resume and SOS in a combined formula so teams with weaker schedules still get ranked but they can't rise over a certain point because of their SOS 

[Sammy Swordsman]

8 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

The reason I suggest it that way is currently you already have a system in place for the tiers as it is and adding a standalone tier for bad schedules could make it overly complicated and even teams with a bad schedule can still beat teams in the normal tiers 

 

By applying the handicap instead you will still be able to rank the teams but their schedule causes them to have a reduced value which is similar to the MaxPreps Team strength rating which takes into account resume and SOS in a combined formula so teams with weaker schedules still get ranked but they can't rise over a certain point because of their SOS 

@GardenStateBallerThe Mendoza Handicap will  also reward teams for scheduling Top 10, 25, 50, 100.   This will be a selling tool to encouraging OOS scheduling.

A team can earn (10) positive bonus Mendoza points by playing a Top 10 team, (7 points) for a Top 25 team; etc.

What coach wouldn't jump at the chance to increase their Mendoza rating.

[Columbiafan]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

@GardenStateBallerThe Mendoza Handicap will  also reward teams for scheduling Top 10, 25, 50, 100.   This will be a selling tool to encouraging OOS scheduling.

A team can earn (10) positive bonus Mendoza points by playing a Top 10 team, (7 points) for a Top 25 team; etc.

What coach wouldn't jump at the chance to increase their Mendoza rating.

Though one downside is you should probably create a maximum cutoff on both ends (last thing you want is a team with a +200 Mendoza ranking ending up in the top 100 with a 4-6 record) 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Columbiafan

[Sammy Swordsman]

2 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

Though one downside is you should probably create a maximum cutoff on both ends (last thing you want is a team with a +200 Mendoza ranking ending up in the top 100 with a 4-6 record) 

Good point.  I was thinking the same.   Let me know your ideas and we can get it worked out by the start of the season.  We can run some samples using different point values and cut offs.  Then  we can see what would be most representative.

[Columbiafan]

26 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Good point.  I was thinking the same.   Let me know your ideas and we can get it worked out by the start of the season.  We can run some samples using different point values and cut offs.  Then  we can see what would be most representative.

Okay sounds good, try running a few potential examples and shoot me a message and I'll check it out 

 

I went ahead and sent the message so just check it out when you get a chance, I ran a potential example of one potential number application that can be used 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Columbiafan

[Longtime Observer]

3 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

CAI plays a national schedule. Jesuit is just a local power in FL. This is a national fan site. Therefore, CAI trumps TJ. 

Meaning, consults with you to make their schedule. 🤡

One of, if not THE, best teams in Florida is, by definition, a major player nationally. At the moment, Jesuit is MUCH more relevant nationally, having knocked off STA and won a state title. it's quite the struggle to come up with ANY major wins for CAI.

[Longtime Observer]

2 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

CAI started 11-man football in 2016. They have a high school enrollment of about 90 co-ed students. Over the last three years, they've produced 36 D1 ballers, including players that have committed to Clemson, Bama, Minnesota, FSU, RU, WVU, Miami FL, Stanford, etc. The aforementioned accomplishments makes them as relevant and national as any HSFB team can be. The casual fans need to step-up their efforts 😉 

Is 90 a typo? Or an embarrassment for CAI?