Analysis of Westlake TX

[GardenStateBaller]

10 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Servite would have gone 3-0 vs Buford the last three seasons.   Probably would beat them this year as well.   Mallard Creek is no Mission Viejo.   You are jaded when it comes to evaluating actual on the field performance of programs. 
 

For you it’s Tier 1 and then everyone else is a beauty contest based on who does the most biz with PGL.

2022 is a different season with new players and expectations. Buford is starting in the middle of the pack at #13. We'll know more after the Thompson game on 8/19 on Flo! 

[Horsefly]

1 minute ago, Steeler01 said:

Have no business in a top 25 right now.  They have to prove they belong there

I agree, but want to see GSB’s analysis on it. He alway has something to say about Texas but is silent on anyone else. 

I also question any rankings, CP, that has Guyer #1 in Texas. Not even close 

[Horsefly]

Just now, GardenStateBaller said:

2022 is a different season with new players and expectations. Buford is starting in the middle of the pack at #13. We'll know more after the Thompson game on 8/19 on Flo! 

You act as if you say things that are profound.  Every single team we will see what they are made of eventually.  That really goes without saying 

[GardenStateBaller]

5 minutes ago, Horsefly said:

They’re waking up? CP had WL #2 last year lol!  If you ever make a valid point it will be the first time. There are 3 Texas teams in the CP top 25.  Maxpreps has 5 in the top 25, 2 in the top 10.  

Still waiting on your posts on why teams like Los alamitos or Santa margarita are in the top 25, but we know you’re too aloof to do any relevant journaling 

 

 

2022 is a different season with new players and expectations. WL is proof that CP is as fair as it gets as a poll.  

[Horsefly]

1 minute ago, GardenStateBaller said:

2022 is a different season with new players and expectations. WL is proof that CP is as fair as it gets as a poll.  

They have Guyer #1 in Texas. Hardly an insightful pick.  They’ll adjust a hell of a lot when the season progresses 

[GardenStateBaller]

1 minute ago, Horsefly said:

Hardly an insightful pick.  

Nobody on Earth knows this yet. 

[Horsefly]

7 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Nobody on Earth knows this yet. 

It’s a terrible pick because they really don’t know 💩 about the programs, players or coaches. Not a damn thing. They aren’t putting eyes on programs during the spring or summer. Hell, they probably took the program info off the Dave Campbell magazine   😂 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Horsefly

[Sammy Swordsman]

2 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:

Sometimes, the difficulty appears to be overrated. But, I think you underrate it some, too. For one thing, the sheer number of games a team has to win is not insignificant. Physically and psychologically, it is a challenge to be "up" for that many games.

I remember many years ago, third round of playoffs, Lakeland went down to Ft. Lauderdale and won a classic battle on STA's home field. Came back up for a home game the next week against a nobody Estero. Team was banged up and flat, and suffered one of the bigger upset losses in state history. Make no mistake, beating Estero at home was the WAY easier task than winning on the road at STA. It wasn't the degree of difficulty of that particular game, it was the difficulty of playing so many games in a row that you had to be up for.

Many of the teams discussed here have entire seasons of 8-12 games...total. In Texas, you have to play 16. That none of the excess teams on those schedules are any better than some particular opponent does not tell all of the story. I maintain DLS would have never had the win streak it had if they had to play 15 or 16 games in a season, even if none of the added teams were better than the best team they beat in a given year.

The Estero example is relevant because alot of HS are flat and beat up the week following a tough game with an opponnent with = or >skill and physicality.   BUT the really good teams still find a way to win those flat games.  Barring a key injury to their QB, Lakeland should not have lost to Estero that year.

I agree with you on the DLS part, but not because they didn't play 16 games, but because they never played (2) teams back to back that could match them.  DLS played flat alot during their streak, but got away with it because they were playing Clayton Valley type schools.

[GardenStateBaller]

10 minutes ago, Horsefly said:

It’s a terrible pick because they really don’t know 💩 about the programs, players or coaches. Not a damn thing. They aren’t putting eyes on programs during the spring or summer. Hell, they probably took the program info off the Dave Campbell magazine   😂 

 

 

Um, each team submits an annual questionnaire outlining # starters returners including QB, #D1 prospects, names ballers lost to graduation, etc. Outside of yours truly meeting with every HC in our T25, no other poll is more hands-on.  

[Horsefly]

6 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Um, each team submits an annual questionnaire outlining # starters returners including QB, #D1 prospects, names ballers lost to graduation, etc. Outside of yours truly meeting with every HC in our T25, no other poll is more hands-on.  

I checked on their site a few weeks ago and the data for most teams wasnt updated. DCTF released their magazine then magically CP has info. 

Yeah keep believing they’re getting questionnaires from some 16k schools. Lol

When did you meet with Salazar and Kay?  Hell, kay didn’t even grant you an interview. 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Horsefly

[GardenStateBaller]

5 minutes ago, Horsefly said:

I checked on their site a few weeks ago and the data for most teams wasnt updated. DCTF released their magazine then magically CP has info. 

Yeah keep believing they’re getting questionnaires from some 16k schools. Lol

When did you meet with Salazar and Kay?  Hell, kay didn’t even grant you an interview. 

Those that matter wil comply. Those that don't will continue to cry. 

[Horsefly]

1 minute ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Those that matter wil comply. Those that don't will continue to cry. 

😂 comply? As if you and CP have a  thing to do with the play on the field; not one dime do you put into any districts, nor have admin oversight over TXHSFB.  You’re spectators what goes on here not facilitators of anything that is relevant  

[GardenStateBaller]

1 hour ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Servite would have gone 3-0 vs Buford the last three seasons.   Probably would beat them this year as well.   Mallard Creek is no Mission Viejo.   You are jaded when it comes to evaluating actual on the field performance of programs. 
 

For you it’s Tier 1 and then everyone else is a beauty contest based on who does the most biz with PGL.

Justice Haynes '23 rcently transfered into Buford from BT. He's a 4* UGA commit, the #1 RB in the state and #4 RB nationally. The other pollsters are unaware of these intricate facts. #fingeronthepulse 

[Longtime Observer]

2 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

What's the use of playing 16 games annually if the outcomes of 12 of them are already always predetermined? This has been debated many times. Way too many teams make the playoffs in TX. Not blaming the state, though, as this phenomenon has taken over America in every sport. #participationtrophies 

What the best number of teams in the playoffs is is a different question. Fact remains, if you have to take the field and play 4 quarters to beat a team-even if you're clearly the better team-that's harder than NOT having to take the field. Of course, the outcome isn't always as "predetermined" as some want to believe.

[Longtime Observer]

41 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

The Estero example is relevant because alot of HS are flat and beat up the week following a tough game with an opponnent with = or >skill and physicality.   BUT the really good teams still find a way to win those flat games.  Barring a key injury to their QB, Lakeland should not have lost to Estero that year.

I agree with you on the DLS part, but not because they didn't play 16 games, but because they never played (2) teams back to back that could match them.  DLS played flat alot during their streak, but got away with it because they were playing Clayton Valley type schools.

Yes, they *shouldn't* have lost to Estero. They were banged up, and a couple of fluke plays happened late in the game, and Estero kicked a game-winning FG at the buzzer with 12 guys on the field. Point is, crazy things happen. If some here had their way, Lakeland, having beaten teams by an average score of something like 45-3 all year, would have just been handed the trophy and ranking after beating STA. The Estero game would have been seen as "predetermined". lol

Agree on the consecutive games thing for DLS. If they had five or 6 state playoff games to play, they would have encountered consecutive opponents who were enough "in the ballpark" of them to knock them off. That's something that makes the SEC difficult, which people miss. It's easy to assume that, since Texas A&M beat Alabama, and none of their other opponents were as good as Alabama, that it would be "predetermined" that they'd win the rest of their games and thus it would be pointless to play them. Or, alternatively, since Alabama beat Georgia decisively in the SECCG, and none of their other opponents were as good as Georgia, they need not play the rest of the games. Inferior teams can knock off superior teams for a lot of reasons that aren't apparent to casual fans. The more games you have to play, the greater the chances you're going to have an off day against a team that's maybe an odd match up for you.

[Sammy Swordsman]

8 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:

The more "RELEVANT" games you have to play, the greater the chances you're going to have an off day against a team that's maybe an odd match up for you.

FIFY

[Sammy Swordsman]

34 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Justice Haynes '23 rcently transfered into Buford from BT. He's a 4* UGA commit, the #1 RB in the state and #4 RB nationally. The other pollsters are unaware of these intricate facts. #fingeronthepulse 

 

[Longtime Observer]

59 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Um, each team submits an annual questionnaire outlining # starters returners including QB, #D1 prospects, names ballers lost to graduation, etc. Outside of yours truly meeting with every HC in our T25, no other poll is more hands-on.  

Except they often don't submit this. And they can misrepresent reality as well. Most coaches will overstate what they have, while some "old school" coaches will intentionally understate what they have. 

It stands to reason a dude living in California, running a website named calpreps.com, is going to know much more about CA teams than those in other states. No doubt it's a wet dream for some to believe STA is no better than the 8th best team in California. That's fine...unless people are going to start arguing as if said person's opinions and corresponding computer model are "fact". 

[Longtime Observer]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

FIFY

Fans are often much worse than they think at accurately deciding what games are "relevant" or not. The only reason the Estero game was "relevant" was they had to play the game late in the playoffs. On paper, nobody would have otherwise picked Estero to stay within 4 TDs.

Edited July 9, 2022 by Longtime Observer

[Sammy Swordsman]

1 minute ago, Longtime Observer said:

Fans are often much worse than they think at accurately deciding what games are "relevant" or not. The only reason the Estero game was "relevant" was they had to play the game late in the playoffs. On paper, nobody would have otherwise picked Estero to stay within 4 TDs.

Estero wasn't relevant.  By your own admission the game was a "one off" total fluke that happens maybe 5% of the time in HS football due to a combination of weird occurrances piling up in one game.

[Longtime Observer]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Estero wasn't relevant.  By your own admission the game was a "one off" total fluke that happens maybe 5% of the time in HS football due to a combination of weird occurrances piling up in one game.

sure. Those occurrences were able to happen only because they had to play the game. Having to play the game made it possible-no matter how unlikely it is that it would happen again- that the upset would happen. Hence my point that having to play more playoff games is more difficult than not having to play those games. Five or six playoff games, instead of three, increases the probability of having some bad luck, especially given the fact that each of those games takes something out of your team. Sure, vastly superior teams still win all the games anyway most of the time. But not always... 

[GardenStateBaller]

9 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:

Except they often don't submit this. And they can misrepresent reality as well. Most coaches will overstate what they have, while some "old school" coaches will intentionally understate what they have. 

It stands to reason a dude living in California, running a website named calpreps.com, is going to know much more about CA teams than those in other states. No doubt it's a wet dream for some to believe STA is no better than the 8th best team in California. That's fine...unless people are going to start arguing as if said person's opinions and corresponding computer model are "fact". 

In all aspects of life, there are passionate, caring workaholics and on the other side there are dont-give-a-shit lazies. The formers will always produce the best results in anything they do. 

[Sammy Swordsman]

1 minute ago, Longtime Observer said:

sure. Those occurrences were able to happen only because they had to play the game. Having to play the game made it possible-no matter how unlikely it is that it would happen again- that the upset would happen. Hence my point that having to play more playoff games is more difficult than not having to play those games. Five or six playoff games, instead of three, increases the probability of having some bad luck, especially given the fact that each of those games takes something out of your team. Sure, vastly superior teams still win all the games anyway most of the time. But not always... 

For the Top teams in Texas (and So Cal) the only playoff games that are relevant these days is the Semi finals and finals.   Any loss prior to the semi's is normally a result of a key injury or a fluke play.  

Since flukes are outliers, and can happen in weeks 1-10, playing 16 games against non competitive opponents raises the likelyhood of a fluke only very slightly, not even to a significant level.

 

Back in the 1990s and earlier (in So Cal) there were top teams losing in Round 1.

[Horsefly]

9 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

For the Top teams in Texas (and So Cal) the only playoff games that are relevant these days is the Semi finals and finals.   Any loss prior to the semi's is normally a result of a key injury or a fluke play.  

Since flukes are outliers, and can happen in weeks 1-10, playing 16 games against non competitive opponents raises the likelyhood of a fluke only very slightly, not even to a significant level.

 

Back in the 1990s and earlier (in So Cal) there were top teams losing in Round 1.

It’s not about just the possibility of a fluke loss, but a key injury that would improve the likelihood of a loss to a team that matters later on. (See DV in the semifinals in 2019 v Rockwall. Lost their best player that game.) all games are relevant as far as health is concerned. 

[SeaShells21]

22 hours ago, Steeler01 said:

We said a certain path. When did a team play all of the above in one playoff?

 

It would be possible for teams in region 3 to have to go through 4 of them 😕