Week 2 Tiers

[Sammy Swordsman]

Tier 1 -    Mater Dei, SJB, Bishop Gorman, Miami Central, AHP, ESL, SFA

Tier 2 –      IMG**, Buford, Cham Madonna, SJC, Card Gibbons, STA, Bergen Catholic, Guyer , Northshore

Tier 3  -  Cen10, GoodCounsel, SJP, Edgewater, Hamilton, Westlake (Tx), North Cobb, Katy, Chandler,

Tier 4 -     St. Ed, Timpview, Sky Ridge, Grayson, DeMatha, MNW, Duncanville, Catholic (BR), Atasocita

Tier 5 -    Allen, Desoto, Corner Canyon, Mission Viejo, Poly, Lone Peak, Serra (SM), Santa Margarita,  Lipscomb, Colquitt, Dillard, Gonzaga

Tier 6 -   Lowndes, Folsom, Hoban, SJR, Venice, DBP, Center grove,  Saguaro, Lakeland, Basha, Moeller, Loyola

Tier 1 Mendoza:   SFA (54), Bishop Gorman (51), Mater Dei (40), DLS (38),AHP (28), Allen (22)

Tier 6 Mendoza:  Zachary (-35), , STA (-19), St. Ed (-14), Lowneds (-11),

Dungeon Tier - Aledo, OLU, Los Al, DLS,

New addition is the Dungeon Tier.  Teams with the most precipitous year over year decline, from a National team to not being relevant, Choking in a key game, and/or falling significantly short of expectations.  Also teams with hororendous schedules well below their pay grade may be included.r

 

 

A new metric for Tier ranking will be the Mendoza Handicap.    Modeled after baseball's Mendoza line, this handicap will represent a teams effort at scheduling relevant games.  No team with a negative Mendoza handicap will be considered for   Tier 1. 

* - Indicates teams on probation for their Tier.

** - Indicates Johnny Stanton rule in effect. (dropped due to uncertainty around injury to star player).

*Requests to add your team will be honored.  But must be Tier 6 or above to be placed on a Tier.

Below is an explanation of the Methodolgy used to place the teams on various Tiers.  The Tier concept recognizes that W/L records are a function of quality of opponent, and as such, RELEVANCY of opponent MUST be factored in.  The Tiers recognizes that in some cases, a 10-0 team (ranked in Top 100 by some outlets) could get blown off the field by a 5-5 (unranked) team that played a tougher schedule.  This is why the Tiers was created.

*Not attempting to rank every team, only the ones we discuss on this site.

*Teams are ranked appropriately for that week in the season.  Teams can improve and regress comparatively.

* The Tiers are fluid and subject to extreme fluctuations early in the year, leveling out as the year progresses.

*Tier placements consider a team’s entire body of work, however are weighted heaviest on recent games and game weights decrease in significance in reverse order.  In other words, early road OOS losses to relevant teams can be overcome as the season progresses.

*Teams placed on the same Tier can compete with other same Tier teams and possibly win 2+ of 10. 

*Basically there is a – 2 score drop between tiers.  Could vary from a TD to 3 scores depending on the styles of teams playing.  This does not necessarily mean that there is a 30 point difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3, only that the chances of a Tier 3 team beating a Tier 1 team are exponentially less than the chances of a Tier 2 Team beating a Tier 1 team.

*The Final Tiers will ultimately be made up of (4-16) teams per Tier that would form competitive playoff brackets.

*Tiers are based on exhaustive research, Multiple games watched, and good gut feelings.

*This is a crowd sourced rating. All input will be considered and adjustments will be made as appropriate

[Testadura]

Nice job.  You’re too kind

[Sammy Swordsman]

2 hours ago, THEOC89 said:

I Luv the Dungeon Tier but come on Sammy, DLS in the Dungeon Tier and Folsom in Tier 5 when they both lost to the same team by 3 points?…. 🤣

Serra should be Tier 3, They can play with Cen10 this year…. 

Well you know that I value your input on Nor Cal so I will potentially move Serra up next week.

My thought process on DLS was that they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th qtr.  Even that was generous in that Serra lost 2 fumbles on the DLS goal line.  All indications are that the coaching staff blew the game and deserves the dungeon.

Serra squeeked by Folsom (maybe only because their all world TE was out early and the #2 didn't get many practice reps).   Serra then eeked by a DLS team that starts a freshman DB and has no identity at QB.  We will see how they fare vs a beatable Central Catholic team on Friday.

[GardenStateBaller]

1 minute ago, PCGridiron said:

Food for Thought from the Sunshine State.

#1. Anyone who is being honest knows that IMG beats MC if Jayden Bradford doesn't get hurt early in that game. Not only would the Ascenders have won but by 14+.

But yeah that's water under the bridge because injuries are a part of the game.

#2. AH is better than MC right now.

#3. Chaminade has a poor defense. Rated wayyy too high.

#4. Dillard has the athletes to be a Tier 3 school but not until the coaching gets better. They look awful against good teams with equal talent.

#5. It's too early to tell now with the lack of practice/game time but if this Lakeland team gels the way the 2018 team did, they are the 2nd best team in the state behind IMG. Even right now their defense is playing as well if not better than the 2018 squad that finished Top 7 nationally.

LL SOS currently sits at 0.6!!

You'll soon see that @Sammy Swordsman is a bigger stickler than I re SOS. It's what drives his Tiers. 

[Sammy Swordsman]

9 minutes ago, PCGridiron said:

Food for Thought from the Sunshine State.

#1. Anyone who is being honest knows that IMG beats MC if Jayden Bradford doesn't get hurt early in that game. Not only would the Ascenders have won but by 14+.

But yeah that's water under the bridge because injuries are a part of the game.

#2. AH is better than MC right now.

#3. Chaminade has a poor defense. Rated wayyy too high.

#4. Dillard has the athletes to be a Tier 3 school but not until the coaching gets better. They look awful against good teams with equal talent.

#5. It's too early to tell now with the lack of practice/game time but if this Lakeland team gels the way the 2018 team did, they are the 2nd best team in the state behind IMG. Even right now their defense is playing as well if not better than the 2018 squad that finished Top 7 nationally.

Excellent feedback.  I appreciate your observations and will incorporate your takes in future weeks.  The Tiers are crowd sourced so all input is welcome.

I watched the IMG vs MC game and thought IMG second QB was as good or better than the first.  He sure moved like a seasoned QB..  MC just wanted it more.  Bottom line. 

AHP has arguabley the best talent on offense in the Country.  QB, RB and WR and all dangerous and combined are pretty unstopable.

I will pay more attention to Chaminade defense, but the Fla polls seem to like them alot.

Dillard showed they are good enough to fit in with the other Tier 3 teams for now.

Lakeland - There are about 900 teams who's defense would look as good as Lakeland vs the same opponents so far.   Can't really vet Lakeland until they play a Tier 1-5 team.   Benefit of the doubt goes to teams that have been vetted even if they lose.

[Columbiafan]

On 9/6/2022 at 8:55 PM, Sammy Swordsman said:

Excellent feedback.  I appreciate your observations and will incorporate your takes in future weeks.  The Tiers are crowd sourced so all input is welcome.

I watched the IMG vs MC game and thought IMG second QB was as good or better than the first.  He sure moved like a seasoned QB..  MC just wanted it more.  Bottom line. 

AHP has arguabley the best talent on offense in the Country.  QB, RB and WR and all dangerous and combined are pretty unstopable.

I will pay more attention to Chaminade defense, but the Fla polls seem to like them alot.

Dillard showed they are good enough to fit in with the other Tier 3 teams for now.

Lakeland - There are about 900 teams who's defense would look as good as Lakeland vs the same opponents so far.   Can't really vet Lakeland until they play a Tier 1-5 team.   Benefit of the doubt goes to teams that have been vetted even if they lose.

Yup you nailed it right there!!

 

Fortunately my 792 Florida Sports Rankings have the credibility to actively benefit the tiers anytime you need it, a lot of games this week should handle some remaining kinks in the rankings 

[All Dei]

On 9/6/2022 at 5:29 PM, THEOC89 said:

Serra should be Tier 3, They can play with Cen10 this year…. 

I have serious doubts.  Who else besides MD has figured out how to stop Cen10?  They obliterate everyone else, including MV, who I think is 2 TDs better than Serra.  Cen10 is very, very difficult to scheme against and play.  Rollo knows Logan inside and out and has played him forever and a day.  I think Serra gets overwhelmed and loses by 3 TDs+.  Sadly, just our opinions as it certainly won't happen this year (unless they end up in Div 1 and DLS or SF goes to the open)...

[Sammy Swordsman]

3 hours ago, Columbiafan said:

Yup you nailed it right there!!

 

Fortunately my 792 Florida Sports Rankings have the credibility to actively benefit the tiers anytime you need it, a lot of games this week should handle some remaining kinks in the rankings 

Great.  I you can send me an advance copy on Sunday morning, that would help me alot!!!

[Columbiafan]

9 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Great.  I you can send me an advance copy on Sunday morning, that would help me alot!!!

I should be able to have something over by then, at least my state rankings will be ready by then

[All Dei]

10 minutes ago, THEOC89 said:

You need to watch Serra Play…. That game could have easily been 42-21 Serra and 2 of Serra’s Biggest and Best linemen did not play…. Serra would Beat MV in my opinion…. 

Serra is Big, Physical and Fast, Their QB throws a Beautiful Ball and can run and they have a very Diverse offense…. 

Cen10 is the only So Cal Team that I think is a Pic’em against Serra, They can match Cen10 Score for score and they have the speed in defense to stop Cen10….

Serra has the type of lines that can play with MD and SJB…. All that being said, I would put my money on MD or SJB over Serra, but I would not be surprised if Serra played a 28-21 type of game in the open if they make it….

They played MD last year, they won’t be intimidated this time…. That is not the personality of their Coach…. 

Hope springs eternal, I guess. 😉  No way Serra improves that much in a year, and by the end of the season, an already-dangerous MD team will put a running clock on those boys.  4+ TDs again.

[Columbiafan]

@Sammy Swordsmanstill working on rankings but I can tell you now that Central and Chaminade belong same tier 

 

There may be a change at my #1 FL team in the upcoming rankings