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2 hours ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Raul Lara working his magic at Warren.   Would love to know the whole story 

Except Lara coaches at St.Anthony now

17 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Dutch Fork stepping up is surprising. 

I don’t know about that.Didn’t they almost beat a KM lead Allen team

1 hour ago, GardenStateBaller said:

 

MV is certainly the king of the t-shirt and shorts circuit this summer 

On 7/13/2022 at 8:09 PM, Columbiafan said:

Well technically all someone has to do is pick 8 teams correctly at the beginning and therefore pick 8 state championships as a result 

 

The biggest issue I see is in a state with heavy transfer movement unless someone reports the roster change the initial start point will be way off and it's hard to get to the top of the rankings when starting low unless you beat a bunch of higher ranked teams but those higher ranked teams may not actually be better because of inaccurate data points 

Predict-the-Preps is back for the first time in a decade...coming October 1st. Think you can predict the winner of h.s. football games better than our computer can?  Here's your chance to prove it

4 hours ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Calpreps is King at predicting the plethora of HS games, most of which are beatdowns.

Calpreps is beatable in predicting evenly skilled teams as evidenced in the season long  “pick em”, where a few guys picked more winners.   

This is true but Calpreps was always the elephant in the room and goal of all players aspirations 

4 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

Doesn't mean the preseason rankings are accurate

 

Computer rankings always tend to correct itself over the course of a season with more data 

 

The problem is what data are they using for preseason?!!

http://calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2007/ratings_fixes3.pl

4 minutes ago, Columbiafan said:

And I picked 8/8 state champs last year

 

It doesn't take a math expert to figure out that percentage 😂

That was over 32,000 games 

give it a go 😂

1 hour ago, Steeler01 said:

It works pretty well in states where teams play each other from different areas or divisions. In Southern Cali with the way teams are broken up into divisions by calpreps for postseason play, there will be teams that get ranked higher because of the postseason boost given that shouldn't be rated as high.  Serra was a perfect example last season.  They played in division 3 in the section, but ended up in the top 15 for the state in calpreps final ranking. 

He needs to get rid of the playoff boost.It skews wildly 

2 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:

Ned, this doesn't say anything as to the accuracy of the ratings of teams that never play, have no common opponents, and no common opponents of opponents.  

Good 😂 

You could have six degrees of separation and have some form of connection.Obviously the further away the less accurate.Somehow his model still predicts how teams will do at an 83.3% nationally 

40 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:

Not when you consider that CA, as a default, is rated so much higher than other states by calpreps. And, of course, now the anecdote will be used as irrefutable proof that the assumptions built into the model are right.  

In over 1500 Florida games the model was 84.5% correct on winners 

36 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:

Not when you consider that CA, as a default, is rated so much higher than other states by calpreps. And, of course, now the anecdote will be used as irrefutable proof that the assumptions built into the model are right.  

Calpreps projections on winners was 83.3% in more than 32,000 games.I’d say the model is just fine

1 hour ago, GardenStateBaller said:

CP won me over after almost exactly predicting the final score of the MD/DV game. 

Which was crazy that early in the season 

2 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:

I'm not alleging that there is a conspiracy involved. I'm stating what should be obvious: human bias (that of one human in this case) shapes how the ratings turn out through how the model is programmed. So do the inherent limitations in trying to evaluate teams who never play each other, never play any common opponents, or even any common opponents of opponents.  There are states-primarily CA but I've noticed TX and Ohio in year's past- whose teams are given more of a boost than teams in other states. And that determination is made primarily on subjective terms.

I'm not saying I could do any better. But, I'm also not telling states they should use my ratings to seed teams for state playoffs, either.

I don’t how they use Calpreps in Florida but in California they don’t tell anyone who should be in the playoffs they just rate the teams and the Sections that use their service determine what division each rated team belongs.

i would agree on a national scale it really doesn’t work that well but on regions,divisions and sections it’s pretty good 

5 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:

This is because the guy running the model has CA rated as by far the top state.

Funny that Texas has been rated the top state 7 of the last 10 years at Calpreps.Time for a new conspiracy 😂

Rumors flying around that 5*LBP QB Nico Lamaleava is either going to sit out his SR year or transfer to a school in Tennessee.Apparently no one has seen him with LBP program in weeks 

24 minutes ago, THEOC89 said:

So @Bmore410 and @GardenStateBaller.... What is up with this????..... SFA Now taking 5th year Seniors and Trying to Play High School Football???..... This is Complete BS, and before anyone says anything about any COVID Nonsense, I don't see any 5th year seniors at MD, SJB, DLS, or any other High School in CA that is a Legitimate High School that plays by High School Football Rules.... 

I used to hold SFA is High Regard, but not if this nonsense is happening.... It is just sad they have to resort to 5th year players to try to win a Feke National Championship.... 

I Still think SJB is weak for Ducking SFA, but I get it now if this kind of non sense is going on....

No wonder DLS lost badly 

SFA had 5 college aged kids playing significant roles in that game 

I’m going with Texas from top to bottom.California had maybe 4 teams better than anyone in Texas last year but I think after that things turn towards Texas.

Not sold on Florida being better than California at this point and Georgia is a distant 4th to the other 3

13 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

I'll never get involved with an oppty unless I have free reign of who I bring in. 

So In your search do you consider the quality of the game or just who’s willing to make it happen? My assumption is the former but difficulties end up making it the latter.

5 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

I'm speaking with Carmel about hosting an IN vs The USA doubleheader event in September 2023. 

Have they indicated what type of competition they are looking for(public/private) or are they leaving that strictly up to you?

Best teams in Cleveland? Sounds like SJB will be reaching out to participate 

54 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Our teams based in the SF Valley (Jokes, Westlake Village) are generally lacking the linemen size that are prevalant in the Trinity League.  The SF Valley teams have no business being ranked in the Top 75 Nationally.   They like to play Utah teams because our teams think Utah is easy.   In reality the Utah Top 3 are better than the Calif  10-20 ranked teams

 Texas is probably stronger  State vs State after the Top 10 or so.

Since when is Westlake village in the SF valley 😂 or Oaks Christian?

Alemany yes Sierra Canyon yes not the others

20 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

TX and GA have faired dismally vs elite OOS competition of late. Meanwhile, CA and FL have many huge wins vs top OOS competition. Talent > Tradition 

Don’t think it’s fair to Texas.The teams they have stepped up to play would wreck everyone.Those teams should be playing each other although I realize the California elite can’t play IMG

5 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Yes, SoCal only unless Folsom wants to travel south on its own dime. 

You should at least ask them 🤷🏽‍♂️