Longtime Observer

17 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Just 40. Less than half. 

Hudl suggests otherwise. Not to mention the fact that the remaining students were also recruited to play sports. Not a real school.  

On 7/14/2022 at 8:58 PM, GardenStateBaller said:

Correct. And the CAI varsity roster consists of about 40 players. 

I asked how many were in the football program. I worded it that way precisely to take away the avenue you chose. You chose it anyway, for obvious reasons.

Let's try again, except this time avoid the move seen above:

How many of the 90 students in high school (grades 9-12) are in the football program?

3 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Wins vs Top 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500+ teams should be easy enough to decipher as the season progresses. 

But who qualifies as top 10, 100, 300 etc is entirely subjective, and what people/computers come up with is often wrong. That's the part people don't like to acknowledge. Is San Juan Hills, 3-7 in 2021 and currently sporting zero recruited players #319- FAR above average- in the country? According to calpreps, yes. Anyone playing San Juan hills gets credit for playing a team with the power rating a top 320 team has. Yet, I doubt we can find anyone sane arguing that 3-7 San Juan hills is an upper-echelon national team. Beating them should be no big deal, and yet it IS a big deal given their relatively high power rating. It's a joke.

12 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

It needs to be the most important link in every poll. 

A major problem that people don't like to acknowledge is that we aren't nearly as good at evaluating SOS as we wish we were. Both human and computer ratings are based significantly on ASSumptions that may or may not actually be correct. And yet, people still continue to refer to SOS as if it's some sort of objective fact not to be disputed 🤨.

53 minutes ago, All Dei said:

If SFA has a distinct talent advantage, they win, regardless of the other team's discipline. e.g. DLS

If talent and level of discipline are relatively equal, you get SFA v IMG.

If talent level is relatively equal, and SFA's on the wrong end of the discipline metric, you get STA and MD.

Not just discipline. The quality of game planning (including film prep) and coordination varies wildly as well.

1 hour ago, GardenStateBaller said:

https://www.clearwateracademy.org/

Why are you so negative about everything? Again, your assumptions are proven wrong. 

90 students at the high school level. Any relevant national program has at least 90 kids in their football program between varsity and JV/freshman teams. Even if the whole football program only has 60 kids, that's still 2/3 of the entire school playing football 😂

3 hours ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

Comp ratings for Top 50.   Do you have a problem with that too?

 

We are working out the details.  

Most ratings stop at 25. Any ratings below about 100 will be computer only.

3 minutes ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Not a typo. It's an extremely selective school. Have to admit that it's amazing what they've been able to accomplish for their size. 

90 students in the entire "high school". How many are in the football program?

It's not a real school. It's just another variation of USAA, Bishop sycamore etc. It's a football academy that recruits international players and provides them free housing, food and other goodies. That's fine by itself. But, it's not at all comparable to actual schools playing football with local student-athletes.

42 minutes ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

@GardenStateBallerThe Mendoza Handicap will  also reward teams for scheduling Top 10, 25, 50, 100.   This will be a selling tool to encouraging OOS scheduling.

A team can earn (10) positive bonus Mendoza points by playing a Top 10 team, (7 points) for a Top 25 team; etc.

What coach wouldn't jump at the chance to increase their Mendoza rating.

Ah, honesty! Credit for that. The wrangling over schedule strength is all about trying to pressure schools to use Joe's services to schedule games. 

1 hour ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

The Mendoza Tier will have the same metrics as the regular Tiers.   Pulling from multiple sources such as ranking publications, both regional and national, video evaluation, crowd sourcing, etc.

A placement in the Mendoza Tier will be cited as justification for a team being dropped to a lower Tier.   For Example, if there are 2 teams on the bubble for Tier 3 but one of the teams is in the Mendoza Tier, the Mendoza Tier team most likely will be dropped to Tier 4.

So, calpreps computer ratings and the opinions of the handful of people posting on this message board? 🤡

2 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

CAI started 11-man football in 2016. They have a high school enrollment of about 90 co-ed students. Over the last three years, they've produced 36 D1 ballers, including players that have committed to Clemson, Bama, Minnesota, FSU, RU, WVU, Miami FL, Stanford, etc. The aforementioned accomplishments makes them as relevant and national as any HSFB team can be. The casual fans need to step-up their efforts 😉 

Is 90 a typo? Or an embarrassment for CAI?

3 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

CAI plays a national schedule. Jesuit is just a local power in FL. This is a national fan site. Therefore, CAI trumps TJ. 

Meaning, consults with you to make their schedule. 🤡

One of, if not THE, best teams in Florida is, by definition, a major player nationally. At the moment, Jesuit is MUCH more relevant nationally, having knocked off STA and won a state title. it's quite the struggle to come up with ANY major wins for CAI.

1 hour ago, Sammy Swordsman said:

The Tiers will be adding a new feature.  
 

It will be called the “ Mendoza Tier”. 
 

Modeled after baseballs Mendoza line, this Tier will list Ranked teams with the worst schedules. 

What will be used to determine the quality of the schedule?

12 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

Of late Jesuit has been a Top 500 team. One fluke, upset loss doesn't automatically make them a T50 team. No way. 

This might shock or offend you, but, we can be sure Jesuit has absolutely zero envy of Clearwater Academy International, which has its own dedicated promotional thread here. 😁

16 minutes ago, WILKINSON said:

Still waiting on the link to the Football Illustrated website...

 

Until then, this poll will be debunked, and a conspiracy to catapult SFA's ranking. 😉

I'm sure we'll get a link...to a Twitter account 😂

54 minutes ago, 1Since71 said:

In over 1500 Florida games the model was 84.5% correct on winners 

Ned, this doesn't say anything as to the accuracy of the ratings of teams that never play, have no common opponents, and no common opponents of opponents.  

I have never heard of "Football Illustrated". I googled it...and got nothing. Fraudsters love to make up their own fake rankings and then retweet each other. 🤮

1 hour ago, 1Since71 said:

Which was crazy that early in the season 

Not when you consider that CA, as a default, is rated so much higher than other states by calpreps. And, of course, now the anecdote will be used as irrefutable proof that the assumptions built into the model are right.  

2 hours ago, GardenStateBaller said:

CP won me over after almost exactly predicting the final score of the MD/DV game. 

using that "reasoning", every time one points out predictions that turned out wildly wrong, you'd be influenced in the other direction. Of course, calpreps offers a valuable service for you, so you'll ignore all such examples.

2 hours ago, 1Since71 said:

I don’t how they use Calpreps in Florida but in California they don’t tell anyone who should be in the playoffs they just rate the teams and the Sections that use their service determine what division each rated team belongs.

i would agree on a national scale it really doesn’t work that well but on regions,divisions and sections it’s pretty good 

It's still a crapshoot regionally. BUT, as long as teams in some states are rated higher than teams in other states (despite an absence of real evidence supporting such a claim), and there are (relatively few) OOS games, than having fewer degrees of separation between your school and schools in the preferred states will impact ALL of the ratings. Venice (Fl) starts this season with a power rating of 63.3, higher than most everyone in the state, because of its "connectivity" to CA powers. In recent seasons, they've played IMG, SFA, STA and Columbus. Those teams, either through their schedules or the schedules of their opponents in recent years, greatly reduce the number of links in the chain between them and the CA schools. So, for 2022, they lost a lot of key players, only list a couple of players with recruiting stars, and were beaten decisively in the spring game (which was played for real, and is viewable on NFHS site), but still get a very good starting rating. Teams that play Venice now get points for facing a team rated in the 60s, which gives themselves a chance to boost their rating, which boosts their other opponents ratings, and so on. Those teams, with boosted ratings due to a game against a team in the 60s, now also boost Venice right back, since Venice has teams now rated more highly on its schedule.

The "connectivity" to preferred states' top teams is how we end up with a 6-5 team (all 5 losses were by a minimum of three (3) TDs) with no impressive wins starting the season rated #11 in the COUNTRY (Santa Margarita). It's how another team no one has ever heard of can go 3-7, with zero wins over top 2000 teams, and zero rated prospects to spotlight, can end up rated #317 (waayyy above average) NATIONALLY ( San juan Hills). Both of those schools (and plenty of others) have very few links in their schedule chain between themselves and the elite CA teams. 

Both Dillard and Lakeland have made massive moves with transfers in the off-season. Of course, both are public schools and thus disfavored on this site.  Dillard appears to be the most formidable district opponent for STA since I don't know when. 

13 hours ago, 1Since71 said:

Funny that Texas has been rated the top state 7 of the last 10 years at Calpreps.Time for a new conspiracy 😂

I'm not alleging that there is a conspiracy involved. I'm stating what should be obvious: human bias (that of one human in this case) shapes how the ratings turn out through how the model is programmed. So do the inherent limitations in trying to evaluate teams who never play each other, never play any common opponents, or even any common opponents of opponents.  There are states-primarily CA but I've noticed TX and Ohio in year's past- whose teams are given more of a boost than teams in other states. And that determination is made primarily on subjective terms.

I'm not saying I could do any better. But, I'm also not telling states they should use my ratings to seed teams for state playoffs, either.

14 hours ago, All Dei said:

Maxpreps uses Calpreps, but it is not their product.  They do have their own, distinct poll, but it's not computer-generated, and that opinion poll is one of the two most-quoted, along with USAT.

The "other" poll is the "power" rankings, which is directly from calpreps. That's the one the FHSAA uses to seed for state playoffs! Utter incompetence. Which is to say it is everything we should expect from a governing board.

1 hour ago, pied said:

I don't know why anyone gets that mad at this poll.  Imagine ESPN had an exclusive contract with, let's say the B1G. It shouldn't shock anyone, that if they had a poll(voted solely in house) that B1G teams would get partial treatment.  Now let's say members of another conference, let's say the SEC really didn't want to play B1G teams and didn't play on ESPN.  

It seems logical that ESPN, might for several reasons (money being one), show some impartiality to the SEC teams.  easy to say, ~"well how do we know they're good of they won't play any B1G teams on ESPN!"

This is how I see this poll.  Why would I get upset?  We all know what it is.

 

Unfortunately, many casual observers-some of whom actually influence policy directly (see the FHSAA)- may not realize what's behind these rankings. It wouldn't surprise me to see ESPN (and Flo sports) refer to these rankings as THE rankings. That can lead casual observers to see them as that prima facie. Then, with the maxpreps ratings, which are done by one guy's computer model found at calpreps.com, those ratings ARE used as fact in determining playoff seeding in Florida. Those ratings are HEAVILY influenced by the number of degrees of separation from California teams. Meaning, if you or your opponents have played a CA team in the last couple of years, you get a boost. The fewer the links in the chain between your team and a CA team, the better. This is because the guy running the model has CA rated as by far the top state. Of course, such an assumption should have absolutely nothing to do with how teams within Florida are seeded in the state playoffs.

5 hours ago, Bmore410 said:

U dumb as shyt we don’t care about nothing u talking clown

nothing u saying holds any wait

Starting to look like America hates the oldest black catholic school in America SFA but we know the color of the people saying negative comments  
Oscar is trash 🗑 they don’t want no smoke 

 

🦍🦍🦍🐯🐯💪🏾💪🏾💪🏾

GSB has such a funny way of trying to impersonate a SFA fan. When you think about it, it's bigoted to assume such people- all 12 of them in existence- wouldn't know how to spell 'weight'.